Key To Betting The Kentucky Derby Is To Have Fun, Says Falk Sports Economist

The 145^th running of the Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday, May 4 in Louisville, Kentucky.

Rodney Paul is a sports economist and professor at the Syracuse University David B. Falk College of Sport and Human Dynamics.

Paul says:

“The key to betting the Kentucky Derby is to have fun. You should view this as consumption, not investment.

“Betting on the race gives you a chance to come home with some additional money, but there are plenty of experts and the combined ‘wisdom of crowds’ coupled with the rather large takeout (the portion of the betting pool the track keeps for itself) on the part of the tracks. It is very difficult to consistently win.

“If looking for general angles, there is the phenomenon of the favorite-longshot bias, where longshots are generally over bet, and favorites under bet. This is quite different than what we see in North American sports such as baseball, where the reverse is true (favorites are over bet). This difference likely stems from emotional attachment and timeframe of the wager, whereas in the Kentucky Derby most bettors may not have an emotional attachment to any particular horse (which could change during the Triple Crown) and the race itself is very short. Baseball, on the other hand, has emotional attachment by fans over time and the duration of your wager often exceeds three hours.”

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