Trump vs Biden: A Retrospective Election Not a Prospective Election

For Immediate Release

April 8, 2020

Syracuse, NY – Syracuse University political science professor Grant Reeher is available to discuss the news that US Senator Bernie Sanders is dropping his bid for the 2020 Democratic nomination.

“I don’t think the public is going to have much real appetite for thinking about the election until we are toward the end of  ‘the curve.’ There will be a retrospective judgment on the Trump administration’s handling of this crisis, and I still think it’s way too early to predict what the verdict will be.

I don’t think this will come down to Biden persuasively offering an alternative vision of how he would have handled the crisis.  If that were the case, Kerry would have defeated Bush in 2004.  I think it will come down to how the public judges and feels about their situation and the crisis,” said Reeher. “In other words, it will be about the public’s judgment of the Trump administration itself, versus preferring an alternative vision.  In political science terms, this will now be a retrospective election, not a prospective one.”

Professor Reeher is the director of the Campbell Public Affairs Institute at Syracuse University and is a sought-after expert on American politics and political theory. He is the host of creator, host, and producer of “The Campbell Conversations” on WRVO Public Media. Recent interviews include:

• How do we reduce political polarization? America’s veterans can show us the way, USA Today (commentary)
• The Memo: Will impeachment hurt Democrats or Trump? The Hill
• A rare brawl breaks out in race for Onondaga County executive, Politico
• The Democrats’ impeachment play could backfire, Toronto Globe & Mail
• How the 2016 Debates Are Still Haunting Democrats, Time

If reporters would like to interview Prof. Reeher, please contact Ellen James Mbuqe, director of media relations at Syracuse University at ejmbuqe@syr.edu or 412.496.0551.

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