Expert Insights on Escalating Iran-Israel Tensions
Retired Vice Admiral Robert Murrett currently is a professor of practice and serves as the deputy director of Syracuse University’s Institute for Security Policy and Law. Murrett writes: “In the wake of the last week’s devastating Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, the upcoming retaliatory action by Iran is likely to represent a significant response and a departure in character from previous such actions. Tehran will have to walk a fine line as they will want to send a strong signal to the Israelis, and at the same time not jeopardize their stated goal of not raising tensions in the region dramatically. Another key dynamic to watch in the weeks and months ahead will be the magnitude of attacks by Iran and their regional surrogates throughout the Middle East. The Israeli strike on the Damascus consulate may result in some level of additional latitude for the proxies, and lead to a range of actions in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, the Red Sea and elsewhere.”
Sean McFate, professor at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School of Citizenship & Public Affairs and author of The New Rules of War: How America Can Win — Against Russia, China, and Other Threats. McFate writes: “Israel and Iran have been fighting a shadow war across Syria for over ten years. Now it risks coming into the light, and could ignite the region into broader conflict — exactly what the White House is trying to prevent. However, unlike previous White House’s, the Israeli don’t issue fake ‘red lines.’ For them, it’s existential, and that’s why everyone should take it seriously. If it happens, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States will be in an odd position: triaging enemies. Before the October 7 attacks, they were all aligned against Iran. Hamas sought to end that alliance, and did.”
